BOISE—Severe heat and sparse moisture during the 2015 growing season resulted in less carryover water in Idaho reservoirs heading into 2016 and the state’s farmers are facing an uncertain water season next year.
A strong El Nino system is forming in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino years usually mean drier and warmer than normal conditions in the Northwest.
However, Ron Abramovich, a water supply specialist with the Idaho Natural Resources Conservation Service office, told about 85 people Nov. 12 that Southern Idaho stream flows were above average during half of the past 12 strong El Ninos since 1950.
That provided some optimism to water managers who attended a 2016 water outlook presentation hosted by NRCS, but it didn’t provide them the certainty they are looking for.
Based on the historical data, “It’s kind of a coin toss either way,” said Pioneer Irrigation District Manager Mark Zirschky. “It’s kind of 50-50 on whether we’ll have an extremely dry year or an extremely wet year.”
Much warmer than normal temperatures in 2015, coupled with low snowpack last winter, resulted in Pioneer only carrying over 13,000 acre-feet of water in Boise River reservoirs, down from 35,000 acre-feet following the 2014 season.
Now, to ensure it has an adequate amount of water for a normal 2016 water year, Pioneer has to hope this turns out to be one of those “good” El Ninos and other irrigation districts in Southern Idaho and Eastern Oregon are in the same boat.
The Owyhee Irrigation District, which provides water to 118,000 acres of irrigated land in Eastern Oregon and part of Southwestern Idaho, ended this year with only 5,000 acre-feet of carryover water, a paltry amount compared to the 350,000 acre-feet the system carries over in an average year.
At the same time Zirschky was attending the Boise water outlook presentation, OID Manager Jay Chamberlin was hearing the same news 430 miles away at a water law seminar in Portland, Ore.
“That’s what I’m hearing: There’s a 50-50 chance of precipitation being above normal,” he said. “This very strong El Nino is kind of a crap shoot. We’re hoping for the good one.”
Based on historical data, however, a strong El Nino is unlikely to help farmers in Northern Idaho, which experienced a severe drought this summer that resulted in record-low stream flows in many areas.
Source: www.capitalpress.com