The first estimate of the 2024/25 sugarcane harvest, released this Thursday, 25th, by the National Supply Company (Conab), indicates that Brazil should produce 685.86 million tons, a reduction of 3. 8 percent compared to the previous harvest, when 713.2 million tons were produced , also according to the company.
Among the factors highlighted are the low rainfall, combined with the high temperatures recorded in the Center-South region, which caused losses in productivity, estimated at 79.08 thousand kilos per hectare, 7.6 percent below that obtained in the previous harvest, which was favored by good weather conditions, according to Conab.
According to the company's survey, the sugarcane harvesting area grew by 4.1 percent, from 8.33 million hectares to 8.67 million hectares. The growth is due to the increase in areas undergoing expansion and renewal, with the harvest in the Center-South region, already started, starting to intensify from May onwards.
In the Southeast, where the largest sugarcane production in the country is concentrated (64.6 percent), the survey points to a production of 442.74 million tons, a retraction of 5.6 percent compared to the 2023/24 harvest, with the largest reduction observed in São Paulo, of 28.32 million tons, due to the contrast with the excellent result of the last harvest, according to Conab. As for the Central-West, the second region that produces the most raw material, the estimate is 145.69 million tons destined for the sugar-energy sector.
In the Northeast, Conab expects a production of 56.65 million tons, similar to that obtained in the previous harvest, with crops in the growth phase and likely to begin harvesting from August, as indicated by the research. In the South and North regions of the country, the expectation is that they will produce, respectively, 37 million tons and 3.78 million tons.
Products
Despite the reduction in the harvest, the research points to an estimated sugar production of 46.29 million tons, an increase of 1.3 percent to that obtained in the previous harvest, a record hitherto, of 45.68 million tons.
When compared with the 2023/24 harvest, with the exception of the North region and the states of Mato Grosso and São Paulo, the study observes an increase in sugar production. The favorable market justifies this value, placing the current harvest as the largest sugar production in Conab's historical series.
Total ethanol production, including that produced from sugarcane and corn, is expected to reduce by 4 percent compared to the previous harvest. When analyzing only ethanol from sugarcane crushing, Conab sees a reduction of 8 percent, while cereal derivatives show growth of 16 percent, according to survey data. The estimate therefore indicates the production of 34.18 billion liters of ethanol, from the two raw materials. Of this total, 15.18 billion liters will be anhydrous ethanol and 19 billion liters of hydrated ethanol.
Market
Despite the forecast drop in sugarcane production in the 2024/25 harvest, the supply of the product on the market is expected to remain stable due to high inventories at mills, resulting from the previous record harvest. Furthermore, Brazil continues to have a favorable scenario for sugar on the world market. The fact ends up favoring the production mix to the detriment of ethanol in the 2024/25 harvest, culminating in Conab's forecast of increased production of the sweetener, despite lower production of the raw material.
India, the second largest sugar producer, has been facing adverse weather conditions, including a drought driven by the El Niño phenomenon, causing a drop in production. Even though it has historically been an exporter, the Indian country is facing the prospect of sugar imports due to the decrease in production and the potential abandonment or reduction of sugarcane cultivation by farmers, a scenario that benefits the Brazilian product, according to the company.
On the ethanol side, more competitive fuel prices are already observed in relation to gasoline in some Brazilian states, especially in São Paulo, the largest producer and holder of the majority of the vehicle fleet. However, the 8 percent reduction predicted for the next harvest, as shown by the data, tends to reduce the difference for gasoline, due to the better scenario for sugar, with the production mix unfavorable to biofuel.
Conab Surveys
Throughout the harvest year, Conab makes four sugarcane estimates.
The numbers and the comparison between the surveys are presented in a complete spreadsheet in NovaCana DATA, which includes graphs and the history of harvests since 2014/15. Access is exclusive to subscribers.