July USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year (FY) 2011 is increased 188,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) from the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), due to higher beginning stocks and production.
Beet sugar production is increased 80,000 STRV to 4.710 million STRV, while cane sugar production is decreased 10,000 STRV to 3.525 million STRV, reflecting area for harvest in the June Acreage report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Sugar use is unchanged.
For FY 2010, U.S. beet sugar production is decreased 50,000 STRV to 4.450 million STRV, mainly due to smaller-than-expected beet sugar production in May. U.S. cane sugar production is increased 8,000 STRV to reflect Florida's completed harvest and milling season.
Sugar imports under the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) are increased 270,000 STRV based on the July 6 announcement from the U.S. Department of Agriculture increasing the FY 2010 raw sugar TRQ. Imports from Mexico are decreased 110,000 STRV. With no change in use, ending stocks are increased 118,000 STRV to 1.268 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.8 percent.
On July 9, 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest supply and use estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2010 and projections for FY 2011 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE) report.
Beet Sugar Production
In its Acreage report published on June 30, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) made its forecast of sugar beet area planted and harvested for the 2010/11 crop year. Planted area is forecast at 1.185 million acres, about the same as the previous year and 10,500 acres more than acreage intentions for 2010/11 reported in its Prospective Plantings in March.
Forecast area planted increased from March intentions in the Red River Valley by 7,000 acres, Great Plains by 2,000 acres, and Far West by 1,500 acres. NASS forecasts area harvested at 1.146 million acres, not much different from last year's 1.149 million acres. The implied area harvested-to-planted ratio is 96.8 percent.
The sugar Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC) makes a State-by-State determination of expected sugarbeet yield and calculates a national average sugar beet yield of 26.69 tons per acre. (NASS does not make its yield forecast until the August Crop Production.)
This forecast is in line with yields seen since the 2006/07 crop year and is only slightly below the record high of 26.76 tons per acre from 2008/09. Area planted to genetically modified organism (GMO) seed varieties is forecast at 95 percent of total area, about the same as last year.
With information on sugarbeet yield and trend growth, the sugar ICEC projects beet sugar per acre at 4.109 short tons, raw value (STRV). If realized, this amount would be a record high. Implied beet sugar production is calculated at 4.710 million STRV. The increase from last month is 80,000 STRV and attributable to the increase in expected area harvested.
Either sucrose levels or sugar beet yields will have to be at significantly higher levels than historically seen up to this point to justify beet sugar production at levels at or above 4.960 million STRV. NASS makes its first sugar beet yield and production forecasts in the August 2010 Crop Production.
To view the full report go to www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/SSS/2010/July/SSSM263.pdf
Tables from the Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook are available in the Sugar and Sweeteners Briefing Room at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/sugar/. They contain the latest data and historical information on the production, use, prices, imports, and exports of sugar and sweeteners.
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/SSS/
Sugar Briefing Room, http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Sugar/
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