SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased 304,831 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.682 million on increases in production and imports.
With the end of beet slicing in all regions except California, USDA has adopted beet processor estimates of production from slice at 4.882 million STRV. With a small reduction in beet sugar from desugared molasses, beet production for the fiscal year is estimated at 5.179 million STRV, an increase of 133,781.
Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 5,791 STRV on processors’ SMD reporting. Imports are increased by 165,259 STRV to 3.619 million.
High-tier tariff imports are increased 115,000 STRV on the strong pace through early July. Raw high-tier for the year is estimated at 700,000 STRV and refined is at 270,000 STRV. Sugar from imported molasses used as refiners’ melt input is estimated at 58,899 STRV, up 11,753, mostly on a revision of a technical conversion factor.
Imports from Mexico are increased 38,506 STRV, as a proportion of early season imports were from 2022/23 production in Mexico. Sugar use is increased 42,912 STRV on the strong pace of exports to Mexico. Residually estimated ending stocks increase to 1.986 million STRV implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.6 percent.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased 249,972 STRV on a combined increase in beginning stocks and beet sugar production more than offsetting a reduction in imports. Beet sugar production is projected at 5.236 million STRV. This is a 124,816-STRV increase due to an increase in area harvested relative to June, an increase in national yield from early planting, and an increase in sugar from desugared molasses due to expansion of capacity.
Program imports are increased 231,485 STRV due to the announced setting of the additional specialty TRQ. Hightier/other imports are increased 38,753 STRV to 301,899. High-tier tariff imports are at 243,000 STRV and sugar from imported molasses is at 58,899 STRV. These increases in imports are more than offset by a reduction in imports from Mexico under provisions of the CVD Suspension Agreement based on U.S. Sugar Needs. There are no changes in use. Ending stocks are projected at 1.695 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent.
Mexico sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by larger imports only marginally reduced by a small decrease in production from last month. Imports for consumption are increased by 114,000 metric tons (MT) on strong entries occurring in May, and imports for IMMEX are increased 36,700 MT due to expected shipments into the program from the United States for the rest of the year. As was assumed last month, ending stocks are expected to be carried over to 2024/25 given poor production expected in 2024/25 relative to the recent period before 2023/24.
Mexico exports for 2024/25 are reduced from last month to 708,420 MT on a large decrease of exports into the U.S. market resulting from the terms of the CVD Suspension Agreement. With some small exports to other countries, the decrease in exports to the United States of 348,325 MT obviates the need for imports in 2024/25 except for 25,000 MT imported for IMMEX.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is raised 134 million bushels to 2,008 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.
The first 2024 survey-based production forecasts for other spring wheat and Durum indicated an increase from last year for both classes at 578 million and 89 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,341 million bushels on an increase in harvested area and yields. Beginning stocks are raised on the June 1 stocks reported in NASS Grain Stocks.
Imports are lowered 15 million bushels to 105 million. Feed and residual use is increased 10 million bushels to 110 million on larger supplies. With larger supplies, exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 98 million bushels to 856 million, up 22 percent from last year and the highest in five years. The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price is reduced $0.80 per bushel to $5.70 on higher stocks, recent declines in futures and cash prices, and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks. Supplies are increased 6.9 million tons to 1,057.2 million, primarily on larger beginning stocks for several countries and higher production, mainly for the United States, Pakistan, and Canada. Pakistan’s production forecast is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 31.4 million, based on government estimates indicating a large yield. Canada’s production is increased 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million on improved moisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces.
Global consumption is raised 1.9 million tons to 799.9 million on higher food, seed, and industrial use and feed and residual use for several countries. World trade is virtually unchanged at 212.9 million tons as higher exports for the United States, Canada, and Pakistan are nearly offset by reductions for the EU, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 5.0 million tons to 257.2 million, mostly on increases for the United States, China, Argentina, Pakistan, and Canada more than offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU, and Iran.