World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates – May 2023

Published online: May 15, 2023 News
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SUGAR: U.S. sugarbeet production for 2023/24 is projected at 33.345 million tons with yield forecast at 30.77 tons/acre and area harvested projected at 1.084 million acres.

Recent year regional averages and trends are applied to NASS forecasts of area planted from Prospective Plantings for projected planted-to-harvest ratios and state-level sugarbeet yields. Assuming average regional levels of beet pile shrink and slicing recovery, beet sugar production for the August-July crop year and fiscal year is at 4.961 million short tons, raw value (STRV).

Cane sugar production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.264 million STRV. Based on analysis of area and yield developments, production levels in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are expected to be modestly above 2022/23 levels. For 2022/23, Florida cane production is decreased by 28,669 STRV to 2.015 million on processors’ reporting. TRQ imports for 2023/24 are projected at 1.413 million STRV with levels set at minimum levels consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings and with TRQ shortfall projected at 94,059.

Re-export imports are projected at 250,000 STRV and high-tier tariff imports at 120,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico for 2023/24 are projected at 1.517 million STRV. For 2022/23, imports from Mexico are reduced by 64,987 STRV as Mexico is expected to produce less low polarity sugar than previously estimated, and refined exports are reduced to assure that no more than 30 percent of the total is refined. Deliveries for 2022/23 are increased by 75,000 STRV to 12.675 million on pace to date and that amount is carried over to 2023/24. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 1.444 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.26 percent. Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 5.900 million metric tons (MT). Area harvested is expected to be at a level similar to 2022/23, and yield and recovery are expected to be closer to historical trend. Production in 2022/23 is lowered 175,000 MT to 5.385 million. Sugarcane yield is estimated at a low 59.98 MT/hectare and recovery is estimated at 11.04 percent. Factories are shutting down, in some cases sooner than expected. If the remaining factories follow suit by shutting down earlier than anticipated, production could be lower by even more. The current production estimate for below-99.2 polarity sugar is 767,520 MT. Based on the pace for the first 6 months of the crop year, deliveries for human consumption in 2022/23 are lowered by 82,735 MT to 4.085 million while high fructose corn syrup deliveries are increased by 116,000 MT to 1.407 million.

Deliveries for IMMEX in 2022/23 are estimated at 350,000 MT. Until more information becomes available, imports for IMMEX are unchanged at 25,000 MT, the same level as in 2021/22. For 2023/24, deliveries for human consumption are increased on expected population growth and IMMEX deliveries are projected at 500,000 MT, a return to trend levels. Stocks for both years are calculated at levels consistent with having enough sugar available for 2.3 months to meet delivery requirements in the succeeding year before the new sugarcane campaign begins in November. Exports for 2023/24 are projected residually at 1.298 million MT and all will go to the U.S. market under export license.

WHEAT: The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, increased domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2022/23. U.S. wheat supplies are forecast lower than last year with smaller beginning stocks and only slightly larger production. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area.

However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The all wheat yield, projected at 44.7 bushels per acre, is 1.8 bushels lower than last year. The first survey-based production forecast for 2023/24 winter wheat is up 2 percent from last year as higher Soft Red Winter production more than offsets a decline in Hard Red Winter and White wheat. Total 2023/24 domestic use is projected at 1,112 million bushels, up 1 percent from last year, primarily on increased feed and residual use.

Exports are projected at 725 million bushels, 50 million lower than last year. Ending stocks are projected 11 percent lower than last year and the lowest in 16 years. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is $8.00 per bushel, down $0.85 from last year’s record. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for lower supplies, trade, consumption, and ending stocks compared with 2022/23.

Global production is forecast at a record 789.8 million tons, up 1.5 million. Larger crops in several countries, including Argentina, Canada, China, the EU, and India are partly offset by sizeable declines in Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. The largest increase is for Argentina, where production is expected to recover from a significant drought. Near-record production is forecast in Canada on expanded area reported in the Statistics Canada planting intentions survey. EU production is forecast higher, benefiting from above-average precipitation for nearly all EU member countries except Spain and Portugal. Production in Russia is forecast lower on reduced area and yields from last year’s record.

In Ukraine, production is forecast down 21 percent from the prior year, mostly due to the war with Russia. After three consecutive record crops, production in Australia is forecast to decrease substantially as yields revert to average. Projected world consumption at 791.7 million tons is down 3.0 million compared with last year on reduced feed and residual use. Larger feed grain supplies in 2023/24 make wheat less competitive. The largest feed and residual reductions are in Ukraine, India, Russia, and China.

Global trade is projected at 209.7 million tons, a decline of 5.5 million from 2022/23. Russia is expected to once again be the largest exporter followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, the United States, and Argentina. Sharp decreases in exports for Australia, India, and Ukraine more than offset increases for Argentina, the EU, and Russia. Projected ending stocks for 2023/24 are down 1.9 million tons to 264.3 million. Stocks are forecast to decline in Russia and the EU but increase in China and India. If realized, this would represent the lowest global stocks-to-use ratio since 2014/15 with more than half of global stocks held in China.