NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.
SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2025/26 is projected at 5.180 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Harvested area is based on Prospective Plantings (less California) and a 10-year average of harvested planted ratios for sugarbeet-producing states. Good planting progress extending into early May implies good prospects for sugarbeet yields at 31.863 tons/acre at the national level. Recovery is projected at 14.79 percent based on the 10-year national average.
Sugar from desugared molasses is projected at 400,000 STRV on increases in capacity installed since last year at this time.
Cane sugar production for 2025/26 is projected at 4.105 million STRV, an 128,000-STRV increase (3 percent) from 2024/25 based on modest acreage growth in Louisiana and stable acreage in Florida. Parameters (sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery) are based on recent years’ averages.
TRQ imports for 2025/26 are projected at 1.419 million STRV consistent with minimum access WTO bindings and with allocations set for various FTAs. Re-export imports are projected at 200,000 STRV and imports from Mexico are at 668,925 STRV. Hightier tariff raw sugar imports are projected at zero. High-tier tariff imports of refined sugar are projected at 131,374 STRV, reflecting a 50 percent reduction from 2024/25 as competition from domestically processed sugar increases.
This reduction is expected to accelerate for the remainder of the calendar 2025 year with the monthly average for the January-September period in 2026 stabilizing at 10,000 STRV. For 2024/25, high-tier refined imports, according to Customs data, amounted to about 252,000 STRV through the first week of May. Imports for the remainder of the fiscal year are estimated at about 85,100 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption for 2024/25 are decreased 90,000 STRV to 12.150 million reflecting a sustained decreasing trend during the first 6 months of the fiscal year. This amount is carried over to 2025/26. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 1.436 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.62 percent. Mexico production for 2025/26 is projected at 5.094 million metric tons (MT). Based on FAS Mexico City reporting, area harvested is expected to be 760,000 hectares, sugarcane yield at 64.2 MT/hectare, and factory recovery at 10.44 percent. Production has yet to recover from the effects of severe drought from two seasons ago. Imports for 2024/25 are estimated at 189,000 MT and projected for 2025/26 at 142,000 MT. Most of these imports are for the IMMEX products re-export program. It is recognized that imports into IMMEX facilities are constituting an increasing share of sweetener deliveries into that sector along with increased use of high-fructose corn syrup. Exports to the United States for 2025/26 are projected at 572,489 MT on the assumption that Mexico authorities expect that the U.S. additional specialty TRQ will be set no lower than the level of 2024/25 (231,485 STRV) before the July WASDE.
Ending stocks for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 are projected at about 1.081 million MT. Ending stocks now include 150,000 MT of below 99.2 polarity sugar intended for export into the United States in the first quarter of the fiscal year.
WHEAT: The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook is for increased supplies, modestly higher domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. All wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year on lower harvested acreage. The all wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. The first 2025 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,382 million bushels is up 2 percent from 2024 with Hard Red Winter and White accounting for most of the increase.
Total 2025/26 domestic use is marginally higher, mostly on food use, which is projected at a record 977 million bushels. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bushels as the United States is expected to face strong competition from most major exporters in 2025/26. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are 10 percent above last year at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $5.30 per bushel, down $0.20 from last year on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices. The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, increased consumption and trade, and slightly higher stocks.
Supplies are projected to rise 4.9 million tons to 1,073.7 million with production projected at a record 808.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower carry-in stocks. Increased output for the EU, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada is expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States. Beginning stocks are lowered for several countries, most notably China, Turkey, and the EU. Projected 2025/26 world consumption is raised 4.4 million tons to a record 808.0 million as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use increases relatively less with ample coarse grain supplies. India and the EU have the largest increases for FSI and feed and residual, respectively.
Projected 2025/26 global trade is 213.0 million tons, up 6.9 million from last year but well below the 2023/24 record of 222.2 million. The EU is expected to show the largest year-to-year increase among major exporters, up 7.5 million tons to 34.0 million. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2025/26 global wheat exporter at 45.0 million tons, up from 43.5 million for 2024/25. Exports are also projected higher for Argentina and Ukraine while lower for Australia, Kazakhstan, and the United States. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are 265.7 million tons, up 0.5 million from last year. China and Pakistan account for the largest reductions, while the largest increases are for India, the United States, and the EU.