SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.649 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 76,541 over last month. Area harvested is unchanged at 727,116 hectares (ha) but sugarcane yield is increased to 62.73 MT/ha and sucrose recovery is increased to 10.19 percent on interim analysis from CONADESUCA production data through April 27.
There remains significant downside risk on areas that may not be harvested due to inadequate sugar content in the remaining sugarcane. The low polarity sugar share of total production has been trending downward and is estimated at 6.50 percent, down from 7.00 percent last month. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported to the U.S. market and constitutes 71 percent of the total exported, exports to the United States are projected at 425,607 MT, a very slight decrease from last month.
Mexico production for 2024/25 is projected at 5.189 million MT. Yield and recovery are expected to be closer to historical trend and area harvested will be more than in 2023/24 but likely far below the 800,000-hectare level initially forecast for recent years. Exports to the United States are projected at 1.024 million on the assumption that Mexico authorities expect that the U.S. additional specialty TRQ will be set no lower than the level of 2023/24 before the July WASDE when the Department of Commerce first calculates U.S. needs for 2024/25. Deliveries for consumption are projected at 4.236 million MT on population growth. Deliveries for IMMEX are the same as in 2023/24. Ending stocks are projected at 900,181 MT to cover use in 2025/26 for the 2.3 months before the start of sugar production. Imports are residually projected at 524,814 MT, with 499,814 MT for consumption and 25,000 MT for IMMEX.
U.S. beet sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased 49,192 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.095 million. Production in Red River Valley will continue for another month with piled sugarbeets under stress. Beet pile shrink is still at 9.0 percent, higher than processors’ estimates, but sucrose recovery is reduced to 14.75 percent as increased impurities in sliced beets have reduced extraction effectiveness. Beet sugar production for 2024/25 is projected at 5.111 million STRV. Area planted is 1.129 million acres from Prospective Plantings. National sugarbeet yield is projected at a robust 31.52 tons/acre due to a high proportion of sugarbeets planted as of May 5. Other production parameters are projected on the basis of recent 5-year averages.
Cane sugar production in Florida for 2023/24 is decreased 35,264 STRV on processors’ reporting. Cane sugar production for 2024/25 is projected at 4.121 million STRV based on recent yield trends under the assumption of normal weather and some area expansion in Louisiana. Imports for 2023/24 are increased 22,597 STRV on a decrease in TRQ shortfall due to more sugar expected to enter from the Philippines.
TRQ imports for 2024/25 are projected 1.415 million STRV consistent with minimum access WTO bindings and with allocations set for various FTAs. Re-export imports are projected at 200,000 STRV and high-tier tariff imports of refined sugar are projected at 216,000 STRV. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports are projected at zero. Imports from Mexico are expected to be 1.197 million STRV. Deliveries for human consumption for 2023/24 are reduced 100,000 STRV on the pace to date to 12.350 million. This estimate is carried over to the level projected for 2024/25. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 1.464 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.66 percent.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6 percent from 2023/24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 1,858 million bushels, up 3 percent from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields.
The all wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. The first 2024 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,278 million bushels is up 2 percent from 2023 on increased Hard Red Winter and White Winter production more than offsetting lower Soft Red Winter production.
Total 2024/25 domestic use is projected up 1 percent, primarily on higher feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, up 55 million from the revised 2023/24 exports, which remain at a 52-year low. Increased U.S. exportable supplies and more competitive prices are expected to result in higher exports. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11 percent above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.
The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly lower supplies, increased consumption, modestly higher trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to decrease 2.2 million tons to 1,056.0 million with production projected at a record 798.2 million tons, but lower carry-in stocks for several countries, most notably China and Russia, more than offset higher global production.
Increased output for India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the United States is expected to more than offset reductions for Russia, the United Kingdom, the EU, and Ukraine. Projected 2024/25 world consumption is raised 2.0 million tons to a record 802.4 million as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use is projected lower as feed grains are anticipated to be more competitively priced than wheat. India is the largest FSI increase while China is the largest feed and residual reduction.
Projected 2024/25 global trade is 216.0 million tons, up 0.4 million from last year but below the 2022/23 record of 220.7 million. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2024/25 world wheat exporter at 52.0 million tons, though down from 2023/24. Exports are projected higher for Australia, Argentina, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Canada, but lower for Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey. Projected 2024/25 world ending stocks are 4.2 million tons, down from last year at 253.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16. Russia and the EU account for the largest reductions, which are partially offset by increases for the United States and India.