Cincinnati – Seventy-one percent of Canadian and 43 percent of Mexican consumers report they will buy fewer U.S. grocery products in 2025 according to the tenth wave of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) recently released.
Canada and Mexico are the two largest agricultural trading partners of the U.S. According to the USDA, in 2024 the U.S. exported 33 percent of its agricultural products to Canada and Mexico, totaling over $58 billion out of $176 billion of total U.S. agricultural exports. Imports from these countries were 42 percent, amounting to $90 billion out of $213 billion in total U.S. agricultural imports, according to the USDA.
The quarterly study – now in its third year – also found that 84 percent of Canadians, 79 percent of Brazilians, 78 percent of Chileans, 77 percent of Mexicans, and 76 percent of Colombians, cited the tariffs imposed by the U.S. as the most important factor of why they intend to buy fewer grocery products from the U.S.
The political climate between the U.S. and the respondents’ country was the second most cited reason for the pullback.
“Canadians and Latin Americans are shifting their shopping behavior to spend their money where their values align. That has implications for all brands and retailers as they need to truly understand their customers to make sure they are living up to the standards expected of them,” said Matt O’Grady, President of the Americas, dunnhumby.
Key Findings From The Study
- U.S. retail mass and chain stores in Canada had on average, a 3 percent drop in sales penetration compared to the ninth wave of this study in December 2024. This drop reflects a loss of approximately 500,000 Canadian households. National Canadian chains in discount and mass formats gained 3 percent during this period.
- Nearly 25 percent of Canadians and Latin Americans who are buying less from the U.S. this year, also said that this would become permanent behavior in the future. For Canada this equates to $15 to $20 billion of annual grocery purchasing power.
- While consumers in Canada and Latin America aim their protectionist behavior at the U.S., American shoppers exhibit little interest in retaliating against tariffs levied by countries in the Americas. Instead, 21 percent of U.S. consumers plan to reduce their purchases from China, although the U.S. imports less than 5 percent of its food supply from China.
- Buying from home sentiment is up in most countries, but least of all in the U.S. 63 percent of Canadians, 60 percent of Brazilians, 59 percent of Colombians, 54 percent of Mexicans, and 44 percent of Chileans said they intend to buy more from their own countries. Only 30 percent of Americans agreed with buying more from their own country.
- Channel penetration of discount and dollar channels shifted the most for Canadians (up 3 percent to 75 percent) and for U.S. (up 4 percent to 57 percent) consumers in this wave. U.S. shoppers are more likely exploring discount and dollar stores due to concerns about finances, but significant sales shifts to these channels have not occurred yet.
“Although consumers, retailers, and brands are navigating uncertain times, there are concrete steps all can take in the midst of this disruption. For consumers that may mean rapidly changing their behaviors so they protect their wallets, but for retailers and brands it means they should be turning to data insights to determine which strategic actions they need to take to stay ahead,” said O’Grady.
Methodology
dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, and the U.S. The online interviews for Wave 10 took place in April 2025. Approximately 1,000 to 2,000 individuals were interviewed in each of the six countries for the current wave of the study.
The CTT study is designed to uncover shopper needs, perceptions, and behavior over time, and to complement dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index.
For more information, visit www.dunnhumby.com.
Cincinnati – Seventy-one percent of Canadian and 43 percent of Mexican consumers report they will buy fewer U.S. grocery products in 2025 according to the tenth wave of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) recently released.
Canada and Mexico are the two largest agricultural trading partners of the U.S. According to the USDA, in 2024 the U.S. exported 33 percent of its agricultural products to Canada and Mexico, totaling over $58 billion out of $176 billion of total U.S. agricultural exports. Imports from these countries were 42 percent, amounting to $90 billion out of $213 billion in total U.S. agricultural imports, according to the USDA.
The quarterly study – now in its third year – also found that 84 percent of Canadians, 79 percent of Brazilians, 78 percent of Chileans, 77 percent of Mexicans, and 76 percent of Colombians, cited the tariffs imposed by the U.S. as the most important factor of why they intend to buy fewer grocery products from the U.S.
The political climate between the U.S. and the respondents’ country was the second most cited reason for the pullback.
“Canadians and Latin Americans are shifting their shopping behavior to spend their money where their values align. That has implications for all brands and retailers as they need to truly understand their customers to make sure they are living up to the standards expected of them,” said Matt O’Grady, President of the Americas, dunnhumby.
Key Findings From The Study
- U.S. retail mass and chain stores in Canada had on average, a 3 percent drop in sales penetration compared to the ninth wave of this study in December 2024. This drop reflects a loss of approximately 500,000 Canadian households. National Canadian chains in discount and mass formats gained 3 percent during this period.
- Nearly 25 percent of Canadians and Latin Americans who are buying less from the U.S. this year, also said that this would become permanent behavior in the future. For Canada this equates to $15 to $20 billion of annual grocery purchasing power.
- While consumers in Canada and Latin America aim their protectionist behavior at the U.S., American shoppers exhibit little interest in retaliating against tariffs levied by countries in the Americas. Instead, 21 percent of U.S. consumers plan to reduce their purchases from China, although the U.S. imports less than 5 percent of its food supply from China.
- Buying from home sentiment is up in most countries, but least of all in the U.S. 63 percent of Canadians, 60 percent of Brazilians, 59 percent of Colombians, 54 percent of Mexicans, and 44 percent of Chileans said they intend to buy more from their own countries. Only 30 percent of Americans agreed with buying more from their own country.
- Channel penetration of discount and dollar channels shifted the most for Canadians (up 3 percent to 75 percent) and for U.S. (up 4 percent to 57 percent) consumers in this wave. U.S. shoppers are more likely exploring discount and dollar stores due to concerns about finances, but significant sales shifts to these channels have not occurred yet.
“Although consumers, retailers, and brands are navigating uncertain times, there are concrete steps all can take in the midst of this disruption. For consumers that may mean rapidly changing their behaviors so they protect their wallets, but for retailers and brands it means they should be turning to data insights to determine which strategic actions they need to take to stay ahead,” said O’Grady.
Methodology
dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, and the U.S. The online interviews for Wave 10 took place in April 2025. Approximately 1,000 to 2,000 individuals were interviewed in each of the six countries for the current wave of the study.
The CTT study is designed to uncover shopper needs, perceptions, and behavior over time, and to complement dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index.
For more information, visit www.dunnhumby.com.