World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates

Published online: Sep 14, 2022 News
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SUGAR: U.S. 2021/22 sugar stocks are reduced by 74,093 short tons, raw value (STRV) as combined lower production and imports are only partially offset by lower use. Beet sugar production is lowered by 53,440 STRV on a small reduction in estimated sucrose recovery from crop year sliced sugarbeets and also less sugar (about 20,000 STRV) from desugared molasses.

Beet sugar production in August-September 2022 is still estimated at 500,000 STRV. Cane sugar in Texas is reduced a small amount on revised processor reporting. Imports are reduced by 72,615 STRV. Imports of 117,615 STRV under the 2021/22 raw sugar TRQ are now expected to enter after September 30 in fiscal year 2022/23 as permitted by the USDA extension of the quota year. Although USDA extended the quota year time limit by two additional months from October 31 to December 31, there is no expected reduction in the raw sugar TRQ shortfall of 77,162 STRV.

Partially offsetting the TRQ import decrease is a 45,000-STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports, due mainly to high duty raw sugar imports made by refiners in August. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 50,000 STRV to 12,550,000 on lower-than-expected direct consumption imports in July and projected for August and September.

For 2022/23, cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 40,000 STRV on the NASS increase in forecast sugarcane production. Florida cane sugar production is decreased by 31,537 STRV based on processors’ forecasts submitted to USDA.

Beet sugar production is decreased by 18,421 STRV on lower sugarbeet production forecast by NASS. An increase in sugarbeet production in the Red River Valley is more than offset by reduced production in the Great Plains. Imports of sugar from Mexico are decreased by 137,405 STRV to 1,618,775. This projected reduction is made on the U.S. Needs calculation as provided in the CVD Suspension Agreement governing exports from Mexico to the United States of sugar for consumption. There are no changes to use. Ending stocks are projected at 1,710,386 STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent. There are no changes from last month for Mexico sugar supply and use for either 2021/22 or 2022/23.

WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00 per bushel would remain a record SAFP.

The 2022/23 global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month. Supplies increase by 3.6 million tons to 1,059.6 million, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Production in Russia is forecast 3.0 million tons higher, to 91.0 million, on harvest results for winter wheat to date published by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. If realized, area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs.

The Ukraine production forecast is increased 1.0 million tons to 20.5 million as the harvest is nearly complete and government statistics reported higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones. Larger supplies boost global consumption by 2.4 million tons to 791.0 million, almost entirely on increased feed and residual use as food, seed, and industrial use is nearly unchanged. Feed and residual use in Russia is forecast 1.0 million tons higher to 21.0 million on additional supplies. EU feed and residual use is increased 1.0 million tons to 44.0 million as wheat prices are now more competitive with feed grains, spurring demand. Global trade is nearly unchanged, rising 0.2 million tons to 208.9 million as there were no changes for any of the major exporters. World ending stocks increase 1.2 million tons to 268.6 million as stock increases in Russian and Ukraine more than offset a decline in the EU.