USDA World Agricultural Supply, Demand Estimates

Published online: Jun 15, 2022 News
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SUGAR: U.S. 2022/23 sugar supply is reduced 302,937 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower projected production and lower beginning stocks. With no change in use, ending stocks are reduced to 962,890 STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 7.65 percent, down from 10.05 percent last month.

Beginning stocks for 2022/23 are reduced by 95,850 STRV, mostly on lower beet sugar production occurring in August-September as detailed below. U.S. sugarbeet production for 2022/23 is projected at 31.032 million tons, a reduction of 7.8 percent from last month. The reduction is based on late plantings that imply a national sugarbeet yield of 27.88 tons/acre, the lowest level since 2014/15 when similar delays in planting occurred. Beet sugar production over the 2022/23 August-July crop year is projected at 4,600,931 STRV. Unchanged from last month are forecasts of area harvested (1,113,200 acres), sucrose recovery from sliced beets (14.63 percent), sugar from desugared molasses (360,000 STRV), and sugar from imported beets (30,000 STRV).

Shrink is reduced to 6.576 percent on processors’ forecasts. Delayed planting implies a reduction in August-September sugar production of 100,000 STRV, now projected at 500,000. This reduction implies a decrease in fiscal year (FY) 2021/22 beet sugar production by that same amount for an estimate of 5,153,518 STRV. FY 2022/23 beet sugar production is projected at 4,809,393 STRV.

Cane sugar production for 2022/23 is reduced by 27,062 STRV on lower sugarcane area harvested expected by the processor in Texas. FTA imports are raised by 10,582 STRV on revised FAS data. Cane sugar processors in Florida and Texas reduced their estimates of 2021/22 production by a combined total of 8,864 STRV. A partial offset to these decreases comes from an increase in high-tier tariff imports due to additional raw sugar imports of 13,014 STRV entering in June.

Mexico production for 2021/22 is increased by 40,994 metric tons (MT) to 6,207,684 on an expected strong finish to the campaign in June and extending perhaps into July. Estimated national sugarcane yield at 68.62 MT/hectare and sucrose recovery at 11.34 percent are above recent-year averages. The pace of area harvested has picked up toward the end of the season and is estimated to finish at 797,405 hectares. The production forecast for 2022/23 at 6,000,000 MT is unchanged from last month. Deliveries for human consumption for 2021/22 are increased by 3.4 percent to 4,050,000 MT on a stronger pace compared with the weak pace of last year. The deliveries estimate is carried over to 2022/23. There are some adjustments in ending stocks and exports are residually reduced in both years to achieve supply-use balance. Export projections to the United States under license are unaffected by these changes.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month. NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4 percent from 2021/22. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22.

The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, fractionally lower trade, and slightly lower ending stocks. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production more than offsets an increase for Russia. India’s production is lowered 2.5 million tons to 106.0 million as extreme temperatures in March and April reduced yields during grain fill. Russia’s production is raised 1.0 million tons to 81.0 million with all of the increase in winter wheat on generally favorable weather conditions to date.

Projected 2022/23 world consumption is reduced 1.5 million tons to 786.0 million mainly on lower feed and residual use for India and less food, seed, and industrial use for Sri Lanka and Argentina. Projected 2022/23 global trade is decreased 0.3 million tons to 204.6 million as lower exports from India are not completely offset by higher exports from Russia and Uzbekistan. India’s exports are reduced 2.0 million tons to 6.5 million as the government intends to restrict exports to some destinations to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 40.0 million, which would be the second largest on record. Russia’s supplies are projected higher for 2022/23 and its export prices are more competitive than most other exporters. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.