NOTE: Russia’s recent military invasion of Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally. The May WASDE represents an ongoing assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this action.
SUGAR: U.S. sugarbeet production for 2022/23 is projected at 33.652 million tons with yield forecast at 30.23 tons/acre and area harvested projected at 1.113 million acres. Assuming average regional levels of beet pile shrink and slicing recovery, beet sugar production for the August-July crop year is projected at 4.922 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Sugar production from the 2022 crop in the August-September period is projected at 600,000 STRV, a drop of 78,461 from last month due to a very slow pace of plantings this year. The net effect of August-September production projected for both 2022 and 2023 (5-year average of 678,461) is to increase fiscal year 2022/23 production over the crop year to 5.000 million STRV. While beet sugar production for crop year 2021/22 is only marginally changed based on processors’ data, the fiscal year 2021/22 total is reduced to 5.254 million due to the lower anticipated production in 2022 August and September. Cane sugar production for 2022/23 is projected at 4.040 million STRV. Production levels in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are expected to be close to 2021/22 levels. For 2021/22, Florida cane production is increased by 4,358 STRV to 1.942 million on processors’ reporting.
TRQ imports for 2022/23 are projected at 1.379 million STRV with levels set at minimum levels consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings and with TRQ shortfall projected at 99,208. Re-export imports are projected at 250,000 STRV and high-tier tariff imports at 50,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico for 2022/23 are projected at 1.323 million STRV. For 2021/22, TRQ imports are up 159,625 STRV to 1.727 million on the reallocation of the TRQ shortfall. Shortfall for 2021/22 is now estimated at 70,548 STRV. Re-export imports are increased 50,000 STRV to 300,000 on pace to date. Imports from Mexico are up by 170,000 STRV to reflect the recent increase in the “Other Sugar” Export Limit made by the Department of Commerce at the request of USDA. High-tier tariff imports for 2021/22 are increased by 31,833 STRV on recent imports of raw sugar paying the high duty.
Deliveries for 2021/22 are increased by 85,000 STRV to 12.450 million on a very strong pace for the first 6 months of the fiscal year, especially by beet processors and direct importers of refined sugar. Deliveries for 2022/23 are at the same levels as estimated for 2021/22. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are estimated at 1.813 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.40 percent, up from 12.53 percent last month. Ending stocks for 2022/23 are residually projected at 1.266 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 10.05 percent.
Mexico production for 2022/23 is projected at 6.000 million metric tons (MT). Area harvested is projected at 795,000 hectares, yield at 67.76 MT/hectare, and recovery at 11.14 percent. Production of less-than-99.2 pol raw sugar, or “Other Sugar” as defined in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements, is projected at 792,868 MT. This production level corresponds to the 13.2-percent 5-year average of low pol sugar as a proportion of total sugar production. This sugar is for shipment to the U.S. market and is projected to constitute 70 percent of total exports to the United States, or 1.133 million MT. Deliveries, imports, and ending stocks are expected to be close to 2021/22 levels. Exports are residually projected at 1.628 million MT, with 495,804 going to destinations other than the United States under license.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from last year, as higher yields more than offset a slight decrease in harvested area. The all wheat yield, projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, is up 2.3 bushels from last year. The first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8 percent from last year as lower Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offset an increase in White Wheat production. Abandonment for Winter Wheat is the highest since 2002 with the highest levels in Texas and Oklahoma. Spring Wheat production for 2022/23 is projected to rebound significantly from last year’s drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields.
Total 2022/23 domestic use is projected down 1 percent on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021/22 exports and would be the lowest since 1971/72. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are 6 percent lower than last year at 619 million bushels, the lowest level in nine years. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is a record $10.75 per bushel, up $3.05 from last year’s revised SAFP. Wheat cash and futures prices are expected to remain sharply elevated through the first part of the marketing year when the largest proportion of U.S. wheat is marketed.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies and consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks. Global production is forecast at 774.8 million tons, 4.5 million lower than in 2021/22. Reduced production in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco is only partly offset by increases in Canada, Russia, and the United States. Production in Ukraine is forecast at 21.5 million tons in 2022/23, 11.5 million lower than 2021/22 due to the ongoing war. Canada’s production is forecast to rebound to 33.0 million tons in 2022/23, up significantly from last year’s drought-affected crop. Projected 2022/23 world use is slightly lower at 787.5 million tons, as increases for food use are more than offset by declining feed and residual use. The largest feed and residual use reductions are in China, the European Union, and Australia as well as a sizeable decline in food use in India. Projected 2022/23 global trade is a record 204.9 million tons, up 5.0 million from last year. Imports are projected to rise on increased exportable supplies from Russia and Canada more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Australia. Russia is projected as the leading 2022/23 wheat exporter at 39.0 million tons, followed by the European Union, Australia, Canada, and the United States. Ukraine’s 2022/23 export forecast is 10.0 million tons, down sharply from last year on reduced production and significant logistical constraints for exports. India is expected to remain a significant wheat exporter in 2022/23. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced 5 percent to 267.0 million tons and would be the lowest level in six years. The largest change is for India, where stocks are forecast to decline to 16.4 million tons, a five-year low.