SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.875 million metric tons (MT), a decrease of 141,000 from last month and also 349,248 lower than last year. The sugarcane harvest in Mexico continues to lag at levels unprecedented in recent times. All relevant production parameters (yields and recovery) through February 2 are several standard deviations below 10-year averages with no improvement being seen as time advances.
Late unseasonal rainfall has been present in all regions except the drought-plagued Northeast slowing the pace of the campaign. Interim analysis based on the latest CONADESUCA data implies a full-season national sugarcane yield of 62.6 metric tons (MT)/hectare and an extremely low sucrose recovery of 10.03 percent.
Applying these rates to area harvested estimated by CONADESUCA at 776,408 hectares produces the current WASDE projection. The production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States is projected at 10.5 percent of total production (the same rate estimated by CONADESUCA).
Assuming that all of this sugar is exported to the U.S. market and like last year constitutes 75 percent of the total exported, exports to the United States are projected at 683,752 MT. Exports to other countries are unchanged at 25,000 MT and total exports at 708,752 MT are down 105,328 from last month. Deliveries and ending stocks are unchanged and imports are residually projected at 546,538 MT, up 35,672 over last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased by 23,392 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower beet sugar production only partially offset by increases in cane sugar production and imports. Adoption of beet sugar processors’ estimates of beet pile shrink published in the February Sweetener Market Data (SMD) reduces production by 79,297 STRV to 5.327 million.
Louisiana cane sugar production for the fiscal year is increased 31,500 to 1.935 million on industry reporting and Florida cane sugar production is increased 7,943 STRV on processors’ reporting in the SMD.
Imports are increased by 16,462 STRV on a 140,000 STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports more than offsetting the decline in imports from Mexico. High-tier tariff imports are increased on the pace-to-date. Based on both U.S. Census and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, USDA estimates high duty raw sugar imports entered as of February 5 at 232,566 STRV raising the full year projection to 475,000. High-tier tariff refined imports are increased to 240,000 STRV based on a monthly larger pace for October through January than originally projected. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.450 million on the pace to date. With the change in use greater than the reduction in supply, ending stocks increase by 51,608 STRV to 1.805 million for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent, up from 13.7 percent last month.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grind as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report released on February 1. The reduction is the result of the October-December quarter, which was the lowest flour grind on record for this quarter as reported in Flour Milling Products. Wheat exports are unchanged at 725 million bushels with offsetting byclass changes for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 658 million. The 2023/24 season-average farm price forecast is unchanged at $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, consumption, and trade but lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.5 million tons to 1,057.0 million, primarily on higher production for Iraq and Argentina. Global consumption is raised 1.1 million tons to 797.5 million, mainly on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use in India, where the government is continuing to sell reserves to address price inflation. World trade is raised 1.2 million tons to 210.7 million with higher exports by Ukraine, Argentina, Australia and Turkey that more than offset reduced exports from the United Kingdom and Brazil. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are lowered 0.7 million tons to 259.4 million, the lowest level since 2015/16, on decreases for India, China, and Ukraine.