SUGAR: Mexico sugar supply for 2022/23 is increased by 31,402 metric tons (MT) to 6.474 million on increased imports. Sugar exports are reduced by 54,098 MT to 1.011 million. This reduction is based on a full-year accounting made by FAS of imports from Mexico. This final estimate becomes the USDA estimate of sugar exported from Mexico to the United States.
Other exports not under license are estimated at 21,860 MT, an amount that has not changed for several months. Domestic deliveries are increased by 129,521 MT attributed mainly to a strong pace of deliveries for human consumption. Ending stocks are residually estimated at 835,501 MT, a reduction of 44,022 from last month.
Mexico production for 2023/24 is reduced by 225,000 MT to 5.575 million. Mexico is currently experiencing widespread drought conditions. Rainfall amounts for the April-September period have been at their lowest levels since 2013 in 12 out of the 15 states in which sugarcane is grown. Regions most severally affected are in the western Pacific region. The effects on yields vary depending on irrigation but will be lower overall. The states of Veracruz (the largest producing state in Mexico) and Quintana Roo have not experienced the worst of the drought, so production of low polarity sugar for the U.S. market may not be affected as much as might be expected. Imports are expected to increase as they have in 2022/23 to compensate for the lower production and are projected at 322,039 MT.
Overall supply projected this month ends up being close to that projected last month and will be needed to meet exports to the United States, increased domestic delivery needs for consumption and IMMEX, and ending stocks to cover the period in 2024/25 before the start of that season’s sugar campaign.
U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is decreased by 178,935 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower-than-expected Louisiana cane sugar production in September that gets pushed into 2023/24 but mostly on a decrease in imports. Imports under the WTO raw and FTA TRQs plus re-export programs are down 93,785 STRV. Imports from Mexico are down 63,211 STRV. High-tier tariff imports are up a small amount but the total for the year is a record at 452,626 STRV.
Total deliveries are down by 21,000 STRV as those made for human consumption are down by 25,000 on pace with only a small offset for increased re-export products. Exports are increased 25,000 STRV on pace. Ending stocks at 1.977 million STRV are down 182,935 from last month. U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased by 182,212 STRV attributable to lower beginning stocks. Import and production changes are largely offsetting. FTA TRQ imports set on a calendar year basis are increased 13,099 STRV on imports expected to enter in third quarter 2023 now expected in the fourth quarter of 2023. NASS lowered sugarbeet yields in several states implying a 71,200 STRV reduction in beet sugar production. NASS increased the sugarcane yield in Louisiana and production expected in September is pushed over to 2023/24. Deliveries for human consumption are down 25,000 STRV in line with the reduction made for 2022/23. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.557 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.29 percent, down from 13.51 last month.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 85 million bushels, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary, released September 29.
Domestic use is raised 30 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 29 indicated a higher year-to-year increase for first quarter (June-August) domestic disappearance than previously expected. Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year.
The season average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks. Supplies are reduced 3.5 million tons to 1,051.0 million as reduced production for Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ethiopia is only partially offset by higher production for the United States. Australia is lowered 1.5 million tons to 24.5 million on continued dry conditions over most of the production regions.
Kazakhstan is reduced 2.0 million tons to 13.0 million on suboptimal growing conditions this season. Ethiopia is also lowered 2.0 million tons to 5.5 million on reduced harvested area, dry conditions in August and September, and less input use.
Global consumption is reduced 3.0 million tons to 792.9 million, mainly on lower feed and residual use for Russia and Kazakhstan while most of the food, seed, and industrial use reductions are for Ethiopia and Nigeria.
World trade is decreased 1.1 million tons to 206.3 million on reduced exports by Australia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan only partially offset by higher Russian exports. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million tons to 258.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16.