SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is raised by 82,447 short tons, raw value (STRV) on increased imports only partially offset by lower production while use is lowered 75,000.
The resulting 157,447-STRV stock increase pushes the total to 1,840,610 STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.45 percent. U.S. beet sugar production is estimated at 5,146,621 STRV, a decrease of 24,185 on processors’ estimates of their beet sugar from sliced beets. All beet slicing is complete except for the ongoing campaign in California. No changes were made to beet production occurring in August/September 2023.
Cane sugar in Florida is reduced by 31,987 STRV on processor reporting. TRQ raw imports are increased by 137,789 STRV on USDA’s increase announced last week. There is no change in TRQ shortfall as USTR has not yet announced country allocations. Re-export imports are reduced by 125,000 STRV after data reconciliations were completed by USDA and Custom and Border Protection (CBP).
Greater sugar supply availability in Mexico results in an import increase of 25,830 STRV. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 100,000 STRV to 350,000 on a large raw sugar entry made in June and on a higher expected pace of refined sugar imports for the remainder of the fiscal year. Use is reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12,740,000 on an observed slowing of the pace of deliveries for human consumption.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by 291,502 STRV on increased beginning stocks, larger beet sugar production, and increased imports while use is lowered 75,000. The resulting 366,502- STRV stock increase pushes the total to 1,719,260 STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent. U.S. beet sugar production is projected to increase 72,197 STRV to 5,021,759 on NASS area planted and harvested in the Acreage report that is larger than reported (area planted) or implied (area harvested) in the earlier Prospective Plantings report. TRQ imports are increased by 231,485 STRV on USDA’s July 5 announcement of the additional specialty refined sugar TRQ. In the same announcement USDA also established the raw and refined sugar TRQs set at levels consistent with WTO bindings. Re-export imports are reduced by 125,000 STRV consistent with the reduction made for 2022/23. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 45,000 STRV to 165,000.
The monthly pace of expected high-duty refined imports are projected at about 90 percent of the rate for 2022/23 and raw sugar entries are projected at zero. An evaluation of U.S. Sugar Needs as defined in the CVD Suspension Agreement implies shipments from exported Mexico sugar at 1,485,900 STRV. This is a reduction of 89,627 STRV from last month. The change in use is carried over from 2022/23. The Mexico production campaign for 2022/23 finished at 5,224,239 metric tons (MT) as of June 18. Imports for consumption are increased by 30,000 MT to 75,000 on CONADESUCA reporting and on other official data concerning exports to Mexico reported by other countries. Production for 2023/24 is unchanged at 5,900,000 MT. Drought conditions are severe in the Pacific region and dryness is a problem in other areas. Greater fertilizer and other input use than in 2022/23 is projected to keep production higher than last year’s poor showing.
WHEAT: Changes this month to the 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook increase supplies and domestic use, leave exports unchanged, and increase ending stocks. Supplies are raised on larger production, which is up 74 million bushels to 1,739 million, on higher harvested area and yields.
The first 2023/24 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production is forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields. Gains for all wheat production are partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which are lowered 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the Grain Stocks report, issued June 30. The 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month.
The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month. This month provides the first by-class 2023/24 U.S. wheat supply and use projections. Two consecutive years of drought-affected Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat crops reduce HRW ending stocks to the lowest level in 16 years despite decreased total use. HRW food use is forecast to be the smallest since 2010/11, while HRW exports are the lowest since by-class supply and utilization records began in 1973/74.
Updates to the 2023/24 global wheat outlook reduce supplies, increase consumption, lower exports, and decrease stocks compared with last month. Supplies are reduced 0.9 million tons to 1,066.0 million as lower global production is partially offset by larger beginning stocks. Production is reduced primarily for the EU, Argentina, and Canada, and is only partially offset by increases for the United States and Pakistan. EU production is lowered 2.5 million tons to 138.0 million, as ongoing dry weather diminishes yield prospects primarily in Germany, Spain, France, and Italy. The forecast for Argentina wheat production is decreased 2.0 million tons to 17.5 million based on revised government estimates of planted area. Dry conditions in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan lowers production for Canada 2.0 million tons to 35.0 million.
Global trade is projected down 1.0 million tons to 211.6 million as lower exports from Argentina and Canada are only partially offset by more exports from Russia. World consumption is raised 3.3 million tons to 799.5 million, primarily on increased feed and residual use in China where rains at harvest, especially in Henan province, degraded wheat quality for food use. Projected 2023/24 world ending stocks are lowered 4.2 million tons to 266.5 million and would be the fourth consecutive annual decline.