SUGAR: Ending stocks for 2022/23 are reduced by 154,186 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 1,720,240 on lower supply and increased use, resulting in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
An increase in U.S. sugar production is more than offset by lower expected imports. Beet sugar production is increased by 59,941 STRV to 5,160,157 on an increase in sucrose recovery from the 2022 sugarbeet crop. National sucrose recovery from beets sliced during August 2022 through January 2023 is estimated at 15.4 percent in Sweetener Market Data (SMD) and serves as the basis for the increase for the crop year. Sucrose recoveries in all regions are above average with the recovery in the Red River Valley region likely to be at a record high.
Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 26,167 STRV to 2,039,845 but is decreased in Texas by 11,018 STRV to 76,164. Both of these changes are from processors’ forecasts in SMD. Louisiana cane sugar is increased by 4,297 STRV on processor data for January published in the SMD report.
Imports are decreased by 133,573 STRV on a reduction of the Mexico Export Limit as set out in AD/CVD Suspension Agreements for calculating U.S. Sugar Needs after the publication of this sugar WASDE. High-tier tariff imports are increased to 155,630 STRV on a larger-than-anticipated import pace for refined sugar. Also, raw sugar imports under the 2021/22 TRQ are increased on revisions made by Customs for entries in December. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 100,000 STRV to 12,600,000 on the strong pace through January.
Mexico sugar production is reduced by 415,000 metric tons (MT) to 5,485,000. The campaign has been off the mark since its start with the USDA estimating the pace through the end of December at least 15 percent behind the pace established over the preceding 9 years. Since then, area harvested has recovered and is forecast by USDA at about 820,000 hectares. Sugarcane yields continue to be far below normal estimated through February 25 at 2.911 standard deviations below the average since 2012/13.
USDA projects no improvement and has the 2022/23 national yield at 60.79 MT/hectare, far below the 9-year average of 75.40. Sucrose recovery has been poor as well but is slowly recovering over the course of the campaign; USDA projects it between 10.968 and 11.053 percent. Mexico exports are projected at 1,121,278 MT with almost all expected for shipment to the United States under export license. USDA projects below 99.2 pol sugar production between 784,000 and 805,200 MT, amounts roughly between 70 and 72 percent of the projected Export Limit of 1,117,635 MT. Refined sugar making up the remainder of the allocation implies offsetting domestic use reductions. USDA projects lower deliveries to the IMMEX program and lower ending stocks.
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains $9.00 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and consumption, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered slightly as an increase in production nearly offsets a decrease in beginning stocks, which are lowered mostly on an increase for China 2020/21 feed and residual use. This reduction is based on an updated analysis of government old-crop wheat stocks auction data. Nearly offsetting this change, global production is raised 5.1 million tons to 788.9 million primarily on increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and India.
Production estimates for all three countries are raised on updated government data. Wheat production in Kazakhstan is now forecast at 16.4 million tons, 2.4 million higher than last month, and the largest harvest since 2011/12. World trade is raised 1.0 million tons to 213.9 million as increases for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Brazil more than offset decreases for Argentina and India. Global use is forecast 2.0 million tons higher to 793.2 million, largely on increases in India food, seed, and industrial use and Kazakhstan feed and residual use. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Australia.