SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is increased 178,027 short tons, raw value (STRV) over last month. Revisions for 2021/22 increase 2022/23 beginning stocks by 4,472 STRV.
Louisiana production in September 2022 is increased by 19,259 STRV on processor reporting. This is partially offset by an increase in miscellaneous adjustments in use reported in the 2021/22 Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Because September production in Louisiana is a product of the 2022/23 sugarcane harvest, Louisiana production in 2022/23 is adjusted downward by the September 2022 amount but partially offset by an increase in projected production in September 2023. More significantly, Louisiana production is increased due to the January NASS forecast of sugarcane for sugar production increasing by 5.1 percent over last month to 15,818,000 tons. Sucrose recovery is unchanged at 13.48 percent. Production for the fiscal 2022/23 year is now 2,112,885 STRV, up 88,216 over last month.
NASS projects 2022/23 sugarbeet production at 32,574,000, a 2.65 percent reduction, based on lower area harvested and yield. Lower sugarbeet production is more than offset by an increase in sucrose recovery. Based on sugar production data for August through November in the SMD, USDA projects sucrose recovery at 15.000 percent. This is up from last month’s 14.626 percent that was based on historical trend. The combined effect on 2022/23 beet sugar production is an increase of 120,819 STRV to 5,048,318.
Sugar imports for 2022/23 are decreased by 35,480 STRV. Sugar under the 2021/22 TRQ permitted to enter by the extension of the quota year to the end of December was 164,225 STRV and below that estimated last month by 85,943. An offset comes from an increase in high-tier tariff imports by 50,000 STRV to 125,000 due to an expected increase in the pace of high-tier tariff refined sugar imports for the rest of the year and an increase in raw sugar high tier imports recorded by Customs in December. Entries under the FTA TRQ are slightly increased as well. With no change in use, the change in ending stocks is equal to the supply WASDE-632-4 increase and the resulting ending stocks-to-use ratio is increased to 14.9 percent from 13.5 percent last month.
There are only small adjustments for 2022/23 Mexico supply and use. Exports are increased by a slight 759 metric ton (MT) total of exports to destinations other than those to the United States under license. With no change to ending stocks, deliveries to IMMEX are adjusted down by 759 MT. USDA projects Mexico sugar production for 2022/23 the same as last month at 5.900 million MT. USDA estimates that the sugar production campaign through the end of December is at least 15 percent behind the pace established over the preceding 9 years. Although there is some confidence that the pace will be accelerated, the evidence to date is lacking. The pace of the campaign will continue to be closely monitored.
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. outlook this month is for increased supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning stocks as reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is raised 30 million bushels to 80 million based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based on the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is raised 3 million bushels to 69 million, reflecting larger than expected winter wheat plantings reported in today’s NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel. The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks.
World supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,058.1 million on production increases in Ukraine and the EU. World consumption for 2022/23 is raised by 0.2 million tons to 789.7 million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 global trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a decline for India. EU and Ukraine exports are raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13.0 million respectively on higher exportable supplies. Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India more than offsetting declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.