USDA’s Crop Production report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), both recently released, called for minor reductions in national yields and total production for U.S. corn and soybean producers from last month’s report.
Within Michigan, average yield projections for corn are down 4.6 percent from 2021, while soybeans are expected to be down 9.8 percent from last year. Projected sugarbeet yields for the state took a significant 20 percent hit, with anticipated yields dropping to 29.9 tons per acre, down 7.5 tons from last year’s 37.4-ton average.
Nationally, USDA predicted total corn production at 13.9 billion bushels, down 49 million bushels — less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 8 percent from 2021. Yields are expected to average 171.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and down 4.8 bushels from last year.
Total Michigan corn production was forecast at 327 million bushels, down 6 percent from last year, with a projected yield of 166 bushels per acre, down 8 bushels from last year and down 2 bushels from last month’s forecast.
USDA reduced total soybean production by 65 million bushels to 4.31 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from 2021. Yields are expected to average 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast and down 1.9 bushels from 2021.
Total Michigan soybean production is estimated at 103 million bushels, down 6 percent from last year, based on a yield of 46 bushels per acre, down 5 bushels from a year ago and down 1 bushel from last month’s forecast.
Corn
USDA’s WASDE outlook for corn called for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual use, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks.
Corn supplies, forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, is a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports.
Exports were lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use were raised 50 million bushels, while corn used for ethanol was lowered 50 million bushels.
With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022-23 were cut 47 million bushels, with USDA projecting season-average corn price received by producers to increase 5 cents to $6.80 per bushel.
Globally, corn production for 2022-23 is forecast down 3.8 million tons to 1,459.8 million, with USDA predicting global corn stocks dropping 3.3 million tons to 301.2 million tons.
Soybeans
While lower soybean production would be partially offset by higher beginning stocks, USDA reduced total supplies by 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America.
Lower exports will be offset by increased crush USDA predicted, leaving ending stocks unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels.
USDA estimates season-average soybean price for 2022-23 is will drop 35 cents to $14 per bushel, while meal and oil prices were unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69 cents per pound respectively.
Globally, soybean production for Brazil is increased 3 million tons to 152 million, reflecting higher area reported by Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Global soybean exports were increased 1 million tons to 168.8 million with higher exports for Argentina and Brazil.
Global soybean ending stocks are raised 1.6 million tons to 100.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil.
Wheat
USDA predicted lower wheat supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks, based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield lowering production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million.
USDA raised wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 120 million for hard red spring wheat, while exports were lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and uncompetitive U.S. export prices. If realized it would be the lowest U.S. wheat export figure since 1971-72.
Projected ending stocks were lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007-08.
The season-average farm price was raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022-23.