SUGAR: U.S. 2022/23 sugar supply is increased by 249,762 short tons, raw value (STRV) on higher beginning stocks and higher projected production. Stocks carried over from 2021/22 are 45,769 STRV larger than estimated last month mostly on an increase in high-tier tariff imports, now estimated at 325,000 based on the pace of both raw and refined sugar imports through the first week of August. Beet sugar production is increased by 203,993 STRV on the NASS forecast of sugarbeet yield higher (29.2 tons/acre) than last month’s WASDE forecast (27.9 tons/acre). There are no changes to trade or to use. Ending stocks are increased to 1,814,227 STRV implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.32 percent, up from 12.35 percent last month.
Mexico production for 2021/22 is increased by 5,237 metric tons (MT) to 6,185,050 on end-of-campaign reporting by CONADESUCA. Exports in 2021/22 are increased by the same amount. There are no other changes in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Food use is raised 6 million bushels to 970 million, based primarily on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued August 1. The report indicated record wheat flour millings in the April-June quarter, which resulted in raising 2021/22 food use to a record 972 million bushels. Wheat exports for 2022/23 are increased 25 million bushels to 825 million with most of the upward adjustment for Soft Red Winter and White, based on competitive export prices. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 29 million bushels to 610 million. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is reduced $1.25 per bushel to $9.25. This is based on prices received for marketings to date, which are lower than previously expected. However, the SAFP is still projected at a record, surpassing $7.77 per bushel in 2012/13. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for higher supplies, greater consumption, increased trade, and fractionally lower stocks. Supplies are raised by 4.2 million tons to 1,055.9 million as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. Production is increased to a record 779.6 million tons, primarily on higher production for Russia, Australia, and China. Russia’s production is raised 6.5 million tons to a record 88.0 million on both higher harvested area and yield. Harvested area increased for both winter and spring wheat on updated area data from Rosstat, Russia’s statistical agency. Winter wheat yields are raised on harvest results while spring wheat yields increased on generally favorable conditions to date. Australia’s production is raised 3.0 million tons to 33.0 million as increasingly favorable weather conditions indicate higher yield prospects. China’s production is increased 3.0 million tons to 138.0 million tons on the National Bureau of Statistics summer grain report, primarily on higher harvested area. Partially offsetting these increases are reductions for India and the EU. India’s production is lowered 3.0 million tons to 103.0 million, primarily on reduced harvested area. EU production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 132.1 million, mostly on reductions for Hungary, Spain, and Romania.
Projected 2022/23 world consumption is raised 4.4 million tons to 788.6 million, led by higher feed and residual use for Russia and Australia. Projected 2022/23 global trade is raised 3.2 million tons to 208.6 million on higher exports by Russia, Australia, Ukraine, Canada, and the United States more than offsetting lower exports from the EU and Argentina. Russia’s exports are raised to a record 42.0 million tons on greater exportable supplies and expectations that export prices will remain competitive. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced fractionally to 267.3 million tons and remain at the lowest level in six years.