USDA Raises Sugar Carryover for '18, '19

Published online: Jul 17, 2018 News Ron Sterk
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Source: Food Business News

The USDA in its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised forecast total U.S. sugar supply, lowered sugar deliveries for food and raised ending stocks for both this year and next.

For the current year, beet sugar production was raised 55,000 short tons, raw value, to a record 5.276 million tons, “based on processor reporting of late season sucrose recovery from sugar beet slicing to a robust 15.2 percent,” the USDA said. High-tier tariff imports were raised 15,000 tons, boosting total supply by 70,000 tons, to 14.571 million tons. Deliveries for food were lowered by 65,000 tons, to 12.235 million tons, with the result a boost of 135,000 tons in ending stocks, forecast at 2.011 million tons, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16 percent, up from 14.9 percent forecast in June.

For 2018-19, cane sugar production was lowered from June by 185,000 tons to 3.740 million tons, with beet sugar unchanged at 5.036 million tons, both the lowest in four years. Total imports were forecast at 3.56 million tons, up 195,000 tons from June based on a 184,000-ton increase in tariff-rate quota imports and a 10,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, projected at 1.655 million tons. Total supply was forecast at 14.347 million tons, up 143,867 tons from the June projection. Deliveries for food were lowered by 100,000 tons from June, to 12.4 million tons, with a net result of a 244,000-ton increase in ending stocks at 1.707 million tons. The 2018-19 ending stocks-to-use ratio was raised to 13.5 percent from 11.5 percent in June.

Minor changes were made to ending stocks forecasts for Mexico. For 2017-18, sugar production was raised 39,000 metric tons, actual weight, to 6.009 million metric tons “on official preliminary reporting of the completed harvest season,” the USDA said. Exports to non-U.S. destinations were raised by 36,375 metric tons, bringing total exports up to 1.228 million metric tons, with ending stocks raised about 4,000 metric tons, to about 1.247 million metric tons.

For 2018-19, Mexico’s sugar exports were raised 9,000 metric tons to 1.427 million metric tons to reflect a small increase from June in shipments to the U.S. (forecast at 1.417 million metric tons), more than offsetting the small uptick in beginning stocks and resulting in forecast ending stocks of 1.008 million metric tons, down 6,000 metric tons from the June forecast.