USDA ERS Sugar and Sweetners Outlook

Published online: May 25, 2011
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U.S. sweetener deliveries for 2010 were 131.9 pounds per capita, up slightly from 2009, but down 19.4 pounds from the per capita high of 151.3 pounds in 1999. Per capita sugar consumption in 2010 was 66.0 pounds, its highest level since 1999, while corn sweetener per capita consumption at 64.5 pounds was at its lowest level since 1986. For the first time since 1985, total sugar available for consumption exceeded total corn sweeteners (the sum of high fructose corn syrup, glucose syrup, and dextrose).

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Projected U.S. sugar supply for FY 2012 is down 5 percent from FY 2011. Lower imports more than offset higher beginning stocks and production. Beet sugar production is unchanged and reflects trend yields, while cane sugar production increases, mainly due to a rebound in Florida.
Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) reflect the minimum U.S. commitments to the World Trade Organization and several Free Trade Agreements to import raw and refined sugar, adjusted for expected shortfall. Imports from Mexico are sharply lower due to an assumed leveling off of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption in Mexico and lack of imports of sugar for consumption into Mexico.
Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use for FY 2012 are projected at 11.125 million STRV, an increase of 125,000 STRV over estimated deliveries in FY 2011. Ending stocks for FY 2012 are projected at 885,059 STRV, implying an ending-year stocks-to-use ratio of 7.7 percent and tight market conditions for the U.S. sugar market.