USDA-Sugar & Sweeteners Outlook- September
U.S. Sugar, September 2010
Estimated U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year (FY) 2010 is increased 141,000 short tons, raw value (STRV), due to higher production and imports. Louisiana cane sugar production is increased 35,000 STRV based on an expected early start to the 2010/11 crop harvest in September.
Imports are increased 105,000 STRV, with 135,000 STRV more from high-tier tariff imports and Mexico more than offsetting an increased shortfall under the raw sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 30,000 STRV.
Deliveries for human consumption in FY 2010 are increased 145,000 tons to reflect the stronger-than-expected pace of these deliveries in recent months. The FY 2010 estimate is now 10.700 million STRV.
Deliveries for re-export sugar-containing products are increased 25,000 STRV to 195,000 STRV, while deliveries for livestock feed use are reduced 5,000 STRV to 15,000 STRV. Both of these adjustments are based on pace-to-date. Miscellaneous use is estimated at -125,000 STRV.
Ending stocks as the difference between total supply and use are estimated at 1.510 million STRV. The implied ending stocks-to-use ratio is 13.7 percent.
Projected U.S. sugar supply for FY 2011 is increased 101,000 STRV from that of August, due to higher beginning stocks (21,000 STRV) and higher beet sugar production (80,000 STRV).
Beet sugar production is increased to 4.890 million STRV based on a higher forecast of U.S. sugar beet production by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Although NASS's sugarbeet area harvested was reduced slightly, the forecast yield increased 2.1 percent from that of August to 28.9 tons per acre. This yield forecast, if realized, would be a record-about 8 percent higher than the previous record yield of 26.8 tons per acre in the 2008/09 crop year. The sugar import forecast for FY 2011 is unchanged.
Deliveries for human consumption for FY 2011 are projected at 10.775 million STRV, a modest 0.7-percent increase over deliveries for FY 2010. Other deliveries are forecast at 185,000 STRV, and the forecast for miscellaneous use is zero, an increase of 100,000 STRV from August.
With no change in expected exports (150,000 STRV), total use is increased 175,000 STRV from August. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.084 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 9.8 percent.
To read the entire report visit www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/SSS/2010/Sept/SSSM265.pdf